Micro-grid and DG expansion: Key role of storage, projected global demand

The authors are part of an extended team which has successfully installed more than a MW of PV globally to provide electrification via micro-grids. After numerous installations, the authors have developed various lessons-learned with regards to installation, usage, and optimization, and have captured key metrics to provide better understanding for expansion. Several observations have come from the various off-grid installations: (1) the primary usage is in the evening; (2) battery use is a critical component; (4) PV acts primarily to charge the batteries; (3) diesel can play a significant role. As a result, the authors have developed a more comprehensive view of the dynamics driving micro-grid usage and Distributed Generation (DG) development. It is observed that storage plays a dominant role in that the usage patterns peak in non-solar (evening) hours. The authors develop a methodology for optimizing micro-grid DG which can include PV, batteries, and diesel generators, along with wind. The authors forecast this PV market to grow to >10GW in the next decade because of key drivers such as: non-grid Telecom, off-grid electrification, and also cyber threats to the electric grid infrastructure, along with climate change driving disruptive weather. This segment will strongly contribute to the Tera-Wt levels of PV coming up in the next 25 years. The advantages of micro-grids with mixed diesel use will be discussed in the context of optimizing cost vs benefit. The goal is to better understand the mix of PV, battery storage, and diesel and the best configuration for different demands.