Influencing factors and health risk assessment of microcystins in the Yongjiang river (China) by Monte Carlo simulation

The Yongjiang river is a large, shallow, hyper-trophic, freshwater river in Guangxi, China. To investigate the presence of microcystin-RR, microcystin-LR, and microcystin-YR (MC-RR, MC-LR, and MC-YR) in the Yongjiang river and describe their correlation with environmental factors, as well as, assess health risk using Monte Carlo simulation, 90 water samples were collected at three sample points from March to December 2017. Results showed that during the monitoring period, total concentrations of MC-RR (TMC-RR), MC-YR (TMC-YR), and MC-LR (TMC-LR) varied from 0.0224 to 0.3783 μg/L, 0.0329 to 0.1433 μg/L, and 0.0341 to 0.2663 μg/L, respectively. Total phosphorus (TP) content appeared to be related to TMC-LR and the total concentrations of microcystins (TMCs), while pH and total nitrogen (TN)/TP ratio appeared to be related to TMC-RR and TMC-YR, respectively. Using the professional health risk assessment software @Risk7.5, the risks of dietary intake of microcystins (MCs), including the carcinogenic risk and non-carcinogenic risk, were evaluated. It was found that the carcinogenic risk of MC-RR from drinking water was higher than MC-LR and MC-YR, and the presence of MCs would lead to high potential health risks, especially in children. The carcinogenic risk of MC-RR to children was >1 × 10−4, the maximum allowance level recommended by the US Environmental Protection Agency; as for adults, it was >5 × 10−5, the maximum allowance level recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection. The non-carcinogenic hazard index (HI) of MC-RR, MC-YR, and MC-LR increased successively, indicating that MC-LR was more hazardous to human health than MC-YR and MC-RR, but its HI was <1. This suggests that MCs pose less risk to health. However, it is necessary to strengthen the protection and monitoring of drinking water source for effective control of water pollution and safeguarding of human health.