Seasonal seismic activity on Mars

Abstract The rate of occurrence of High Frequency (HF) marsquakes, as recorded by InSight at Homestead Hollow, Elysium Planitia, increased after about L S = 33 ∘ , and ceased almost completely by L S = 187 ∘ , following an apparently seasonal variation with a peak rate near aphelion. We define seismic rate models based on the declination of the Sun, annual solar tides, and the annual CO2 cycle as measured by atmospheric pressure. Evaluation of Akaike weights and evidence ratios shows that the declination of the Sun is the most likely, and the CO2 cycle the least likely driver of this seismic activity, although the discrimination is weak, and the occurrence of a few events in August 2020 is in favor for a triggering by CO2 ice load. We also show that no periodicity related to Phobos' orbit is present in the HF event sequence. Event rate forecasts are presented to allow further discrimination of candidate mechanisms from future observations.