From SARS-CoV to Wuhan 2019-nCoV Outbreak: Similarity of Early Epidemic and Prediction of Future Trends

The ongoing large-scale pneumonia outbreak in China is caused by the 2019-nCoV, a new coronavirus highly similar to SARS-CoV in the SARS outbreak. The cause and consequence of the outbreak remain largely unknown as it is still in its early stage. As many aspects of the new virus are similar to SARS in 2003, knowledge, patterns and lessons of the SARS-CoV outbreak are valuable resources for responding to the Wuhan 2019-nCoV outbreak. Using epidemiological surveys and analyses from the early stage of the SARS outbreak, we assessed and compared the characteristics of those two outbreaks and predicted the possible outcome for the current 2019-nCoV outbreak. Like the SARS-CoV, the 2019-nCoV has a high human-to-human transmission capability and healthcare workers and family members are high risk populations. Because the early outbreak stage coincides with the Chinese spring festival travel rush, it is a challenge to prevent and control the spread of the virus. In this situation, the emergence and movement of a 2019-nCoV super-spreader is difficult to identify. Using the reported case data so far (as of Jan 23, 2019), a logistic model was built and the cumulative and daily counts of the 2019-nCoV cases were predicted. The cumulative counts of 2019-nCoV cases was estimated about 2-3 times the total number of SARS, and the peak incidence is predicted to be in early or middle February. Regional migration should be limited or prohibited to prevent emergence and movement of a super-spreader. There is an urgent need to establish enhanced surveillance and implement efficient measures nationwide to control this epidemic.