Monthly Precipitation Forecast of Jiulong River Basin Based on Association Rule Analysis

In order to overcome the problems of low accuracy on medium and long term precipitation forecast, a new method based on association rule analysis is proposed under the background of the development and wide application of data mining approach. In this paper, Jiulong River of Yalong River Basin is selected as the research object, and the classical association rule analysis method is used to carry out the research on monthly precipitation forecast. Based on the analysis of 1981-2010 monthly precipitation data, the association rules of precipitation in adjacent two months are obtained, and the accuracy of association rules is tested by monthly rainfall data measured from 2011 to 2014, of which the accuracy is 77.03%. The results show that the monthly precipitation forecast method based on association rule analysis can make good use of historical precipitation information, which can also mine the internal correlation of monthly precipitation and have high forecast accuracy. Furthermore, it provides reference for the medium and long term precipitation forecast of Jiulong River, and has good reference value.