Comprehensive Evaluation and Influencing Factors of Urban Agglomeration Water Resources Carrying Capacity

Abstract Appropriate water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) is important for the sustainable development of urban agglomerations. It is of great significance for the coordinated development of urban agglomerations to accurately evaluate WRCCs. This study calculates the WRCC index of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration (BTHUA) based on the pressure-supporting force, destructive force-restoring force, and degrading force-lifting force (PS-DR-DP) theoretical framework. First, the evolutionary characteristics and spatial distribution characteristics of WRCC were analyzed. Then, a geographically temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model was employed to investigate the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the factors affecting WRCC. The results show that (1) from the perspective of time, the WRCC in the BTHUA is increasing, but the carrying capacity index is not high. At present, nearly 50% of the cities are still in an overloaded state. (2) From the perspective of space, the spatial distribution pattern of WRCC in the BTHUA gradually changed from northeast–southwest to south–north, and the WRCC center of gravity shifted to the west. (3) Urban public water use intensity, agricultural water use intensity, population density, groundwater resources per unit area, industrial wastewater discharge, water conservation investment intensity, and soil erosion control have a notable impact on WRCC. (4) The factors affecting WRCC showed notable spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The study is conducive to comprehensively understand the current situation of the BTHUA WRCC. It can provide a reference for the formulation of a scientific and sustainable water resource development strategy.