Transitioning remote Arctic settlements to renewable energy systems – A modelling study of Longyearbyen, Svalbard

Abstract As transitioning away from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources comes on the agenda for a range of energy systems, energy modelling tools can provide useful insights. If large parts of the energy system turns out to be based on variable renewables, an accurate representation of their short-term variability in such models is crucial. In this paper, we have developed a stochastic long-term energy model and applied it to an isolated Arctic settlement as a challenging and realistic test case. Our findings suggest that the stochastic modelling approach is critical in particular for studies of remote Arctic energy systems. Furthermore, the results from a case study of the Norwegian settlement of Longyearbyen, suggest that transitioning to a system based on renewable energy sources is feasible. We recommend that a solution based mainly on renewable power generation, but also including energy storage, import of hydrogen and adequate back-up capacity is taken into consideration when planning the future of remote Arctic settlements.