Impacts of export restructuring on national economy and CO2 emissions: A general equilibrium analysis for China

Abstract Sectoral adjustment for China’s export is vital to transform the Chinese economic structure so that high-quality development can be achieved. However, it is unknown to what extent export restructuring will affect the national economy and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. This study quantifies the potential economic and CO 2 emission impacts of export restructuring under various export structure patterns and climate policies scenarios by using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Results show that China’s export restructuring will lead to 0.5–0.7% increase of Gross Domestic Production (GDP) and 2.0–2.2% increase of consumption in 2030 under all the non-climate policy scenarios, although the export volume will decrease. Meanwhile, CO 2 emissions per GDP and total employment will both decrease under all the scenarios. At the sectoral level, the transport equipment sector will increase significantly in output, employment and CO 2 emissions, while the textile sector will suffer substantial output and employment losses. Considering the application of climate policies, the USA pattern has the highest GDP and is the most carbon efficient among the three export structures. China’s export restructuring will also increase global GDP and consumption by around 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively. Such results suggest that encouraging export of service, transport equipment and reducing export of textile would be effective for China’s economic development and CO 2 emission reduction.