A Classification Model to Analyze Inclusion in Higher Education Systems: An Approximation from Contingency Theory

Colombia’s national science, technology, and innovation (STI) system planned resources to include more people in higher education systems (HES) to create the human capital needed to foster socio-economic development. Two of the main concerns and central indicators in HES are the inclusion of undergraduate students and PhDs. However, in several countries, the supply of PhDs seems to exceed the demand in universities despite institutional pressures exerted by accreditations and rankings to increase the number of PhDs into their faculties. Additionally, in Colombia, the number of freshmen has decreased in recent years. This imbalance leads to a governance problem in adjusting the inclusion of human capital in HES, which is further compounded by regional inequalities. This chapter proposes a model to classify and forecast the inclusion of students and PhDs within a contingency theory framework to contribute to resource planning according to environmental conditions and to allow better adjustments of governance efforts in its STI system. Using a sample of 257 Colombian universities, the model measures the changes in the probability distribution curve between PhDs and students adjusted according to their territorial conditions. The results show that changes in inclusion depend on the development level of the regions. The main conclusion is that there exists a group of regional universities with greater capacity for growth in the inclusion of students and PhDs that can contribute more to the development in their territories.