Predicting impact of climate change on geographical distribution of major NTFP species in the Central India Region

This study used MaxEnt model to determine the potential distribution of M. longifolia, B. lanzan, E. officinalis, T. bellirica, T. chebula and S. urens under current climatic conditions and subsequently map the their potential future distribution under four representative concentration pathways for 2050 and 2080 in the Madhya Pradesh, India. The results showed that rainfall of wettest (Bio_16) and driest (Bio_17) quarters together contributes nearly 60% to the total variations under all RCP scenarios. The results indicated that under current climatic conditions south eastern region of Madhya Pradesh has higher potential of all the studied species. M. longifolia will be able to withstand the future climate change, while B. lanzan and T. chebula will be impacted negatively. T. bellirica and E. officinalis are expected to expand to new areas under RCP 4.5 in near-term future. S. urens is expected to gain area under RCP 2.6 and 4.5 for 2080. All species are expected to show shift in range towards wetter forest type in north eastern region of the state. Our results will be useful for identifying potential growth regulating factors and suitable areas to support scientific management of these economically important NTFP species. These results can also be useful in gauging the behaviour of other associate species in the area with similar bioclimatic requirements.