Análisis demográfico de la Violencia en Colombia

En este artA­culo se argumenta que en la historiografA­a colombiana existe falta de consenso en cuanto a la duraciA³n y al nAomero de vA­ctimas de la Violencia de mediados del siglo XX. Ambas controversias son resueltas analizando las caracterA­sticas demogrAificas de la poblaciA³n colombiana. A partir de censos y registros vitales de la A©poca, se estimaron algunos componentes bAisicos: tablas de vida, tasas de natalidad y tasas especA­ficas de muertes violentas. Considerando el tamaA±o y la distribuciA³n de la poblaciA³n colombiana, se estimA³ un mAiximo de 57.737 vA­ctimas mortales en el periodo 1949-58. Teniendo en cuentas que no todas las muertes violentas tendrA­an una causa polA­tica, esta cifra se reduce a 39.142 bajo supuestos mAis conservadores. Por lo tanto, las cifras estimadas en este artA­culo controvierten las mAis de 200 mil vA­ctimas que usualmente se citan en la literatura, pero que carecen de soporte cuantitativo. Aunque fueron menos muertes que las usualmente aceptadas, los avances que permitieron reducir la mortalidad durante el siglo XX se vieron parcialmente atenuados por el exceso de mortalidad durante los aA±os de la Violencia. **** ABSTRACT: This paper argues that there is a lack of consensus in the Colombian historiography regarding the duration and the number of victims of the political violence of the mid-twentieth century. Demographic characteristics of the Colombian population were analyzed in order to examine both controversies. Based on population censuses and vital records of the time, some basic components were estimated: life tables, birth rates, and specific rates of violent deaths. Considering the size and distribution of the Colombian population, a maximum of 57,737 deaths were estimated for the period 1949-58. Inasmuch as not all violent deaths would have a political cause, the death toll is estimated to be 39,142 people under more conservative assumptions. Therefore, the figures estimated in this paper rebut the more than 200 thousand victims that are usually cited in the literature without quantitative support. Although there were fewer deaths than those usually accepted, the advances that allowed reducing mortality during the 20th century were partially attenuated by the excess mortality during the years of la Violencia.