Factors influencing the ecological security of island cities: A neighborhood-scale study of Zhoushan Island, China

Abstract Many island cities have vulnerable ecosystems, yet island ecosystems also present special challenges for research. Ecological footprint analysis is an effective method of evaluating the ability of island cities to engage in regional ecological sustainable development. This study uses ecological footprint analysis combined with the ArcGIS platform to evaluate the ecological security of 14 neighborhoods on Zhoushan Island (Zhejiang Province, China) in 2010, 2013, and 2015. The partial least squares regression model is used to explore factors affecting spatial and temporal differences in ecological security in the island’s neighborhoods and to help optimize the island’s ecological sustainable development. Results reveal that Zhoushan Island’s per capita ecological footprint decreased from 7.355 hm2 in 2010 to 4.662 hm2 in 2015, yet throughout the study period, the per capita ecological footprint remained higher than the per capita ecological carrying capacity in all neighborhoods. Although the island’s ecological security has gradually improved, there continue to be large ecological deficits and ecological pressure. To improve the island city’s ecological security, we should optimize the mode of urban development, develop renewable energy sources, protect ecologically valuable land, improve the scale and quality of urban zones and transportation infrastructure, and improve residents’ industrial and consumption structures.