On the Seismic Fragility Assessment of Concrete Gravity Dams in Eastern Canada

In recent years, probabilistic methods, such as fragility analysis, have emerged as reliable tools for the seismic assessment of dam-type structures. These methods require the selection of a representative suite of ground motion records, resulting in the need for a ground motion selection method that includes all the relevant ground motion parameters in the fragility analysis of this type of structure. This article presents the development of up-to-date fragility curves for the sliding limit states of gravity dams in Eastern Canada using a record selection method based on the generalized conditional intensity measure approach. These fragility functions are then combined with the recently developed regional hazard data to evaluate the annual risk, which is measured in terms of the unconditional probability of limit state exceedance. The proposed methodology is applied to a case study dam in northeastern Canada, whose fragility is assessed through comparison with previous studies and current safety guidelin...