The Process-Mode-Driving Force of Cropland Expansion in Arid Regions of China Based on the Land Use Remote Sensing Monitoring Data

The center of gravity of China’s new cropland has shifted from Northeast China to the Xinjiang oasis areas where the ecological environment is relatively fragile. However, we currently face a lack of a comprehensive review of the cropland expansion in oasis areas of Xinjiang, which is importantly associated with the sustainable use of cropland, social stability and oasis ecological security. In this study, the land use remote sensing monitoring data in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2018 were used to comprehensively analyze the process characteristics, different modes and driving mechanisms of the cropland expansion in Xinjiang, as well as its spatial heterogeneity at the oasis area level. The results revealed that cropland in Xinjiang continued to expand from 5803 thousand hectares in 1990 to 8939 thousand hectares in 2018 and experienced three stages of expansion: steady expansion, rapid expansion, and slow expansion. The center of gravity of cropland showed the characteristic of shifting to the South. Edge expansion and encroachment on grassland were the dominant spatial pattern mode and land use conversion mode of Xinjiang’s cropland expansion, respectively. The expansion of cropland in Xinjiang was affected by multiple factors. Irrigation conditions played a dominant role. Topography indirectly affected cropland expansion by affecting the suitability of agricultural production and development. Population growth and farmers’ income were important driving forces. There was significant spatial heterogeneity in the intensity, mode and driving force of cropland expansion among different oasis areas in Xinjiang. The spatial shift of China’s new cropland has occupied a large amount of water resources and ecological land in Xinjiang and exacerbated the vulnerability of the ecosystem in arid regions. The key to sustainable management of cropland in Xinjiang in the future lies in maintaining an appropriate scale of cropland and promoting the coordinated development of cropland, population, water resources and industry.