The external dependence of ecological products: Spatial-temporal features and future predictions

Abstract The instability of international trade can threaten the resource security of resource-importing countries, while international trade helps address spatial mismatches between regional populations, economies, and resources. Ecological products are the basis for human survival and development, in which agri-livestock products are especially sensitive to trade fluctuation and closely related to human well-being. The external dependence is an important indicator to reveal the external supply risk of regional resources. Scientific understanding the external dependence of ecological products can reveal the potential risks of trade fluctuations to human well-being and ecological sustainability. In this study, the global status and trend of countries' external dependence of agri-livestock ecological products are investigated. The results showed that nearly 80% (141) of countries relied on imports to meet ecological product demands in 2018, in which Asian-African-Latin countries accounted for about 78%, which indicated that the instability of international trade would threaten the ecological resource security in 80% of the world's countries, especially for underdeveloped countries. Even worse, 68% of countries are increasing their external dependence of ecological products. Even if the intensity of ecological resource exploitation reaches the maximum sustainable utilization level, 60% (113) of countries are expected to need imports for meeting their ecological product demands in 2050. Moreover, even considering the agricultural technological upgrade and the consumption transformation, more than 50% (94) of countries are still net importers of ecological products. Therefore, trade liberalization is still one of the important means to reduce resource security risks caused by trade instability. More notably, half of the countries in the world may sacrifice ecological sustainability to meet basic human well-being in the future under deglobalization.