Who is an expert for foresight? A review of identification methods

Abstract While decision research tends to treat the question of expertise with suspicion, the capacity of experts within the wider, applied field of foresight often remains unquestioned. In this review of expert identification methods, we share the positive assessment of expert judgment for exploring plausible conditions of the future. However, given the contested status of expertise, it is crucial to know how a particular mode of recruitment, or (more often) a combination of diverse methods, seeks to secure the expert status of a person. Our review is motivated by the conviction that foresight researchers should not only assume value in expertise, but defend this value from scientific viewpoints. Based on an introduction to sociological, behavioral and cognitive perspectives on expertise, we trace the epistemological premises guiding different modes of selection. We list eight expert identification methods and explore their core assumptions, strengths, weaknesses and domain examples. Developing such linkages between priorities in expert selection and the arguments underlying them is the major contribution of this article. A second contribution lies in providing an overview of expert selection methods, ranging from simple and low-cost to more complex and combined methodologies.