Tropical cyclone risk assessment using geospatial techniques for the eastern coastal region of Bangladesh

Abstract Tropical cyclones frequently affect millions of people, damaging properties, livelihoods and environments in the coastal region of Bangladesh. The intensity and extent of tropical cyclones and their impacts are likely to increase in the future due to climate change. The eastern coastal region of Bangladesh is one of the most cyclone-affected coastal regions. A comprehensive spatial assessment is therefore essential to produce a risk map by identifying the areas under high cyclone risks to support mitigation strategies. This study aims to develop a comprehensive tropical cyclone risk map using geospatial techniques and to quantify the degree of risk in the eastern coastal region of Bangladesh. In total, 14 spatial criteria under three risk components, namely, vulnerability and exposure, hazard, and mitigation capacity, were assessed. A spatial layer was created for each criterion, and weighting was conducted following the Analytical Hierarchy Process. The individual risk component maps were generated from their indices, and subsequently, the overall risk map was produced by integrating the indices through a weighted overlay approach. Results demonstrate that the very-high risk zone covered 9% of the study area, whereas the high-risk zone covered 27%. Specifically, the south-western (Sandwip and Sonagazi), western (Patiya, Kutubdia, Maheshkhali, Chakaria, Cox's Bazar and Chittagong Sadar) and south-western (Teknaf) regions of the study site are likely to be under a high risk of tropical cyclone impacts. Low and very-low hazard zones constitute 11% and 28% of the study area, respectively, and most of these areas are located inland. The results of this study can be used by the concerned authorities to develop and apply effective cyclone impact mitigation plans and strategies.