A long-term analysis of urbanization process, landscape change, and carbon sources and sinks: A case study in China's Yangtze River Delta region

Abstract Understanding the dynamics of urbanization and induced environmental changes on a regional scale is essential for policy makers to address the growing challenges of local sustainability and global climate change. Choosing the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region of China as a case study, this paper focuses on the long-term urbanization process, its consequences on the spatio-temporal changes on the landscape and associated carbon sources and sinks, and policy drivers behind these changes. Differing from previous research, this paper highlights a systematic analysis of the dynamic process and policies related to urbanization and associated environmental changes through the integration of interdisciplinary, region-based and data-intensive approaches. The results indicate that the urbanization of the YRD region experienced a three-staged trajectory from regressive during 1960–1978 to progressive but unbalanced development from 1978 to 2010. Landscape changes occurred at an unprecedented rate with the encroachment of urbanized terrain on cropland, cropland exploitation, and the reclamation of forest and water as the dominant types. Both carbon sources and sinks have increased significantly from 1995 to 2010, while the spatial net carbon intensity of built-up land shows a significant jump due to the faster growth of carbon emissions than the already astonishing expansion of urban land. Policy implications include improving the social welfare systems, strengthening ecological land conservation and urban sprawl control polices, and reforming the economic structure, especially in Jiangsu province, toward a low-carbon one.