Geospatial Complex Structure Simulation and Analysis System of Geological Disasters Using Petri Net

In the domain of earth system, temporal-spatial and functional direct or indirect interdependent relationships between geospatial objects provide the clue for the study of complex issues. The simulation and analysis of the direct and indirect dependent relationships between these geospatial objects are always the foundation to know complex systems and make geospatial decisions. For example, in some emergencies, such as earthquakes, floods, and fire disasters, the interrelated effect and dependency among particular infrastructures and departments are usually complicated and inharmonious. Then, the potential cascading effects may cause unexpected serious consequences. Therefore, how to know more about disaster effects, and forecast corresponding cascading effects becomes quite important and fundamental to increase the capability of disaster prevention and emergency response. Based on the study on geospatial complex structure among relative objects in disasters, this paper quantifies the interrelationships between these objects, and then applies fuzzy Petri net to simulate potential cascading effects between them. Finally, an example is included to illustrate geospatial complex structure of barrier lakes coming from the Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan Province, China. The potential cascading effects among barrier lakes are dynamically simulated, and then the vulnerable barrier lakes can be found out, which provides one specific theory and technical method to efficiently prevent secondary disasters of earthquakes. In the same way, the proposed method and technique would be used to simulate and analyze other geoscientific complex system structures as well.