Earth observation archives for plant conservation: 50 years monitoring of Itigi‐Sumbu thicket

Itigi thicket is a spatially restricted ecosystem only present in Zambia and Tanzania. It is thought to be highly threatened and therefore we need to urgently assess the threats to this ecosystem as well as extent and rates of change to derive its true conservation status. In this study we focus on the Itigi-Sumbu thicket surrounding Lake Mweru Wantipa in Zambia, which occurs both inside and outside a National Park (IUCN category II). Earth observation data archives provide the means to assist the conservation assessment process by allowing the monitoring of the ecosystem over time. In particular, the Landsat archive offers over 40 years of imagery at a resolution suited to the distribution of this ecosystem. In this study we exploit this archive and extend it back 50 years using historical aerial photography. The remote-sensing data were classified according to presence of thicket at five dates across a 50-year period and these outputs were combined to produce a deforestation map. Crucially, this map was assessed for accuracy using a novel approach to expert knowledge, which shows that the resultant map is highly accurate (93% overall accuracy). A confusion matrix was used to provide a confidence interval to the deforestation figures. Results indicate that 64% of the Itigi-Sumbu thicket around Lake Mweru Wantipa has been cleared over the last 50 years and that the largest area of remaining thicket is currently situated within the Mweru Wantipa National Park. This deforestation figure provides the means to assess the conservation status of Itigi-Sumbu thicket as part of the Red List of Ecosystem as Endangered (EN).