Estimating spatiotemporal dynamics of county-level fossil fuel consumption based on integrated nighttime light data

Abstract Rapid urbanization has resulted in increased fossil fuel consumption in China, which is closely related to regional sustainable development and CO2 emissions. This study proposed an improved model to estimate fossil fuel consumption on the county scale in Shandong to understand the dynamics of fossil fuel consumption. This improved model is beneficial for establishing energy-saving and CO2 emission reduction policies for both Shandong and other regions in China. Because of the lack of data on a county scale, this study applied panel data analysis from 1992 to 2017 by integrating the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) and NPP-VIIRS (Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership satellite with the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suit) nighttime light data. Results showed that (1) The new method performed better than previous methods on estimating fossil fuel consumption; (2) Fossil fuel consumption has been rapidly growing in all cities and most districts and counties, mainly concentrated in west and east central Shandong; (3) Regions with high fossil fuel consumption shifted from west central Shandong to east central on the city level, and expanded from the east central to the entire central region on the county level; (4) In regions with a lower level of development, fossil fuel consumption tended to grow faster. These results will improve the understanding of fossil fuel consumption over the long term on county scales, and are beneficial for creating policies on regional energy savings and CO2 emission reduction.