Risk Assessment of Integrated Electricity--Heat Energy System with Cross Entropy and Objective Entropy Weight Method

The increasing randomness of wind power generation and load in the integrated electricity--heat energy system might raise the operational risks in the coupled systems. This paper proposes a risk assessment method, which is based on the cross entropy and objective entropy weight, for the integrated electricity--heat energy system. Firstly, the steady-state model of the integrated electricity--heat energy system is constructed. The gaussian mixture model is employed to establish the power output uncertainty scenario. Then, the risk level and weight of each indicator are calculated through the cross entropy method and the objective entropy weight method, respectively. Finally, the comprehensive risk evaluation indicator of system operation is obtained by multiplying the risk indicator and the weight of each indicator. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified in the combined IEEE-33 node power system and Bali island 32-node heat system.