Water Resources Modeling and Prospective Evaluation in the Indus River Under Present and Prospective Climate Change

Abstract This chapter explores the complexity of hydrological processes in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), where much of the water resources of the Pakistani Indus River are produced from seasonal snow and ice melt. The chapter provides a picture of the future dynamics of water resources under the control of climate and cryospheric changes. First, based on results from the present literature and from field campaigns in the area, a data-driven depiction is given of the recent situation in terms of climate, water resources, and cryospheric dynamics, as well as related changes in the area. Then results are provided on recent studies aimed at modeling hydrological processes in the Indus River, including precipitation, snow, ice dynamics, and in-streamflows, and comments are made about performance therein. A discussion is offered on results concerning predictions (i.e., projections) of climate, runoff, and cryospheric dynamics under future climatic conditions according to reference scenarios (e.g., from IPCC ARs). A template tool is then provided, based on recent literature on glacio-hydrological modeling in high-altitude glacierized areas and subsequent hydrological projections under climate change, with attention given to the issue of extreme floods under future climatic conditions. The template is discussed and commented on based on a recent study in the UIB. The chapter's discussion section reflects on the need for hydrological monitoring of the area, and two examples are given of hydrological monitoring and network design in the area. Finally, some conclusions are offered about present and expected future dynamics of water resources in the Indus catchment and about the potential for accurate assessment and prediction of and adaptation to changing hydrological regimes.