Long-term water quality analysis reveals correlation between bacterial pollution and sea level rise in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Abstract Long-term assessments are needed to identify water quality trends and their socio-environmental drivers for coastal management and watershed restoration. This study provides the first long-term assessment of fecal bacterial pollution in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico using enterococci data spanning the Texas coast from 2009 to 2020. The data were representative of 66 beaches, 169 stations, and over 75,000 samples. Findings demonstrate that 22 beaches are ‘hotspots’ of pollution and experienced enterococci levels that frequently exceeded the USEPA beach action value. Further, enterococci were correlated with time, population size, and sea level. Weak correlations detected in some counties highlight the multifactorial nature of water quality; additional factors are likely influencing enterococci levels. The correlation with sea level is concerning, as counties vulnerable to sea level rise frequently reported enterococci concentrations exceeding the beach action value. In consideration of sea level rise predictions, targeted studies are needed to pinpoint drivers of fecal pollution.