Waterbird Habitat in California's Central Valley Basins Under Climate, Urbanization, and Water Management Scenarios

Abstract California's Central Valley provides critical, but threatened habitat and food resources for migrating and wintering waterfowl, shorebirds, and other waterbirds. To assist in conservation planning, the Central Valley Joint Venture identified nine basins in the Valley. The basins vary in composition and extent of habitats, which primarily include croplands and wetlands that rely on water supplies shared with other competing human and environmental uses. Changes in climate, urban development, and water supply management are uncertain and could reduce future availability of water supplies supporting waterbird habitats and limit effectiveness of wetland restoration planned by the Central Valley Joint Venture to support wintering waterbirds. We modeled 17 plausible scenarios including combinations of 3 climate projections, 3 urbanization rates, and 5 water-supply management options to promote agricultural and urban water uses, with and without wetland restoration. Our research examines the reduction i...