TRAJECTORIES AND PREDICTORS OF THE LONG-TERM COURSE OF LOW BACK PAIN: COHORT STUDY WITH FIVE-YEAR FOLLOW-UP

Background and objectives Low back pain (LBP) is a major health challenge globally. Research has identified common trajectories of pain over time. We aimed to investigate whether trajectories described in one primary care cohort can be confirmed in another, and to determine the prognostic value of factors collected 5 years prior to the identification of the trajectory. Methods and results The study was carried out on 281 patients who had consulted primary care for LBP, at that point completed a baseline questionnaire, and then returned a questionnaire at 5-years follow-up plus at least 3 (of 6) subsequent monthly questionnaires. Baseline factors were measured using validated tools. Pain intensity scores from the 5-year follow-up and monthly questionnaires were used to cluster participants into 4 previously derived pain trajectories (no or occasional mild, persistent mild, fluctuating, persistent severe), using latent class analysis. Posterior probabilities of belonging to each cluster were estimated for e...