Population-scale dietary interests during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus has altered people's lives around the world, not only through the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) it causes, but also through unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions such as full-scale national lockdowns. Here we document population-wide shifts in dietary interests in 12 countries in 2020, as revealed through timeseries of Google search volumes. We find that during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic there was an overall surge in food interest, larger and longer-lasting than the surge during typical end-of-year holidays. The changes were strongly associated with population-wide mobility patterns. Using a quasi-experimental regression discontinuity design, we estimate that the shock of decreased mobility manifested as a drastic increase in interest in consuming food at home, with interest in recipes and related entities increasing by 90% on average across countries, and a corresponding decrease in consuming food outside of home, with the interest in restaurants decreasing by 54% on average. We find that, in addition to the volume of searched foods, the nature of searched foods also changed. The most drastic (up to threefold) increases occurred for calorie-dense carbohydrate-based foods such as pastries, bakery products, bread, pies, and desserts. In terms of the relative share (rather than absolute volume) of search interest, the most prominent increases occurred for carbohydrate-based foods, whereas the share of interest in other food categories on average remained robust. The observed shifts in dietary interests have the potential to affect food consumption and health outcomes of people worldwide. These findings can inform governmental and organizational decisions regarding measures to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on diet and nutrition, and thus on population health.