Assessment and prediction of Carbon Sequestration using Markov chain and InVEST model in Sariska Tiger Reserve, India

Abstract Enhancing and conserving carbon pools in vegetation is a major climate change mitigation strategy. The dynamics of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems depend on processes like photosynthesis, respiration, decomposition and combustion, anthropogenic activities like emission of greenhouse gases and climatic variations in rainfall and temperature, and is stored as biomass in different forms. The quantification of biomass is necessary to understand the productivity of forests, carbon sink and source dynamics and recommend ways to aid sequestration through supply side interventions like afforestation and demand side measures that check wood consumption. In this study, carbon sequestration based on the change in total carbon in two different scenarios using Markov chain and InVEST model is evaluated for the years 2000, 2018 and predicted for 2035. The results show that 1.351 Tg carbon has already been lost from 2000 to 2018 in the forest area of Sariska Tiger Reserve and another 0.107 Tg of carbon is expected to be lost in the predicted future, when we compare the land use land cover of the year 2035 with the present scenario. The local communities extract fuelwood by cutting down tree branches illegally, which leads to carbon loss into the atmosphere. The lower release of carbon in 2035 as compared to 2018 is because of forest management practices e.g., plantations done in the range Tehla-Talabberi, Sariska- Ganeshpura, Alwar buffer-Shoydanpura, Talvriksh-Manavaas, Akbarpur-Kalikhol, Ajabgarh-Jatwana. The study shows that the economic value of carbon lost from 2000-2018 is million $ 214.57 and if we see the economic value of the predicted year 2035, carbon sequestration is worth million $ 17.19. Outputs demonstrate the potential for restoration/reforestation and afforestation as the most practical carbon loss mitigation strategy and calls for improved access to cleaner energy sources where the renewable energy industry and government may pitch in.