Estimating migratory fish distribution from altitude and basin area: a case study in a large Neotropical river

Summary 1. The objective of this study was to identify longitudinal distribution patterns of large migratory fish species in the Uruguay River basin, southern Brazil, and construct statistical distribution models for Salminus brasiliensis, Prochilodus lineatus, Leporinus obtusidens and Pseudoplatystoma corruscans. 2. The sampling programme resulted in 202 interviews with old residents and fishermen at 167 different sampling sites in the major rivers of the basin. Interviewees were asked whether these fish species were present in the nearby river segment, recently or in the past. The average age of respondents was 56 years, and the great majority had resided for more than 30 years in the area where they were interviewed. 3. Fish distribution patterns were modelled using altitude and basin area as environmental descriptors. Distributional patterns were estimated using logistic equations (LOGIT): , where Al is the altitude and BA is the basin area. 4. Accuracies of the distribution models were between 77 and 85%. These accuracies are similar to those of published distribution models for other fishes based on larger numbers of environmental descriptors. 5. The historical distributional ranges make clear that all operating or planned large hydropower dams in the Uruguay River basin, with one exception, limit or will limit the distribution of migratory fishes.