Analysis of forest fires causes and their motivations in northern Algeria: the Delphi method

Abstract: Forest fires in Algeria are mostly human-caused and result from local social behavior, whether voluntary (arson) or involuntary (negligence). Understanding the reasons why fires start is, therefore, a crucial factor in preventing or reducing their incidence, developing significant prevention efforts and designing specific fire prevention campaigns. The Delphi method is a promising tool for improving knowledge about how fire starts and why, and above all helps reduce the number of fires started by unknown causes, the majority type in Algeria. The Delphi method uses a set of procedures for eliciting and refining the opinions of a panel of experts on a particular subject of interest. This method was used in three case studies, in coastal or inner wilayas (provinces) selected from a highly fire-prone area in north-central Algeria. Results showed the traditional use of fire in agriculture and forestry, in situations related to land use changes and in interpersonal conflicts are the major causes of voluntary fires. For involuntary events (negligence), experts unanimously identified the importance of the restart of fire, caused by fire crews who do not ensure the mopping up of controlled fires (91.49%) and the negligent use of agricultural fires, particularly stubble burning (80.14%). For voluntary fires (arson), results highlight the importance of fires set for land use changes (77.30%), pyromania (67.38%) and honey gathering (62.41%). Illegal dumping and burning of garbage was also mentioned by responders in all study-areas.