Investigating Brexit Implications on the Irish Agri-Food Exports: A Simulation-Based Scenario Mapping Model

The Irish economy is highly dependent on the UK market with a total export value surpassing €14 billion. Several reports have warned of severe bottlenecks at the Irish and British ports if new customs checks are reintroduced. A significant disruption is also expected to the traffic flow between Ireland and Britain because of the lack of proper checking infrastructure at some ports. This situation will cause devastating impact on the competitive advantage of various Irish exports to the UK market, particularly limited-shelf-life products. Hence, a simulation model has been developed to investigate three Brexit scenarios: 1) applying non-tariff barriers at ports, 2) replacing the UK Landbridge with direct routes to continental Europe, and 3) lack of checking infrastructure at the UK ports. The scenarios’ implications on the transportation time and shelf life of Irish Cheese exports to the UK are investigated, leading to one recommendable scenario.