A probabilistic model for assessing the reliability of wind farms in a power system

Modeling the generation of a wind farm and its effect on power system reliability is a challenging task, largely due to the random behavior of the output power. In this paper, we propose a new probabilistic model for assessing the reliability of wind farms in a power system at hierarchical level II (HLII), using a Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed model shows the effect of correlation between wind and load on reliability calculation. It can also be used for identifying the priority of various points of the network for installing new wind farms, to promote the reliability of the whole system. A simple grid at hierarchical level I (HLI) and a network in the north-eastern region of Iran are studied. Simulation results showed that the correlation between wind and load significantly affects the reliability.