Investigating the impacts of built environment on traffic states incorporating spatial heterogeneity

Abstract Traffic state in the urban network is a direct reflection of the operational efficiency of the urban transportation system. As the busiest period of the day, traffic states during evening peak hours can effectively measure the capacity and efficiency of the transportation system. The primary objective of this study is to investigate how the potential factors affect traffic states during evening peak hours on weekdays. The geographically weighted regression (GWR) approach was proposed to model the spatial heterogeneity of traffic states and visualize the spatial distributions of parameter estimations. Four types of data including traffic state index (TSI) data, point of interests (POIs) data, road features data, and public transport facilities data were obtained from Shanghai in China to illustrate the procedure. According to the results, the GWR model outperformed the ordinary least square (OLS) model in the explanatory accuracy as well as the goodness of fit. The urban form was revealed to have a significant influence on traffic states and strong local variability for parameter estimations was observed. The number of public and commercial POIs, residential POIs, bus routes, bus stops, the average number of lanes, as well as average traffic volumes can significantly affect the traffic states spatially, and the estimated coefficients of each traffic analysis zone (TAZ) vary across regions. The conclusions of this study may contribute to making the planning and management strategies more efficient for alleviating traffic congestion.