A Fire Danger Index for the early detection of areas vulnerable to wildfires in the Eastern Mediterranean region

Wildfires continue to be a major factor of disturbance to Mediterranean ecosystems, and are often associated with significant losses of properties and human lives. Fast fire detection and suppression within the first few minutes after ignition are crucial to successfully managing wildfires and preventing their potentially catastrophic consequences. In this study, remote-sensing methods and data were integrated wih fire behavior simulation and field data to develop a Fire Danger Index (FDI) that can be used to detect the areas most vulnerable to wildfires. This FDI will be integrated into an automatic fire detection system that utilizes optical and thermal land cameras and an unmanned aerial vehicle. The FDI was calculated for a nature reserve in Southern Greece based on fire behavior, pyric history, and anthropogenic influence. Fire behavior was estimated using the FlamMap fire simulation model, while the fuel types to include in the model were determined using state-of-the-art remote-sensing methods and field data. The pyric history was represented by point data on fire occurrences over a period of 40 years. The anthropogenic influence was estimated based on an inverse relationship of this influence with the Euclidean distance from roads and settlements. The calculated FDI demonstrated that a large part of the reserve, including its most ecologically important ecosystems, is highly vulnerable to wildfires. Integrating the FDI into the automatic fire detection system is expected to significantly improve its detection accuracy.