Le fluttuazioni della bilancia dei pagamenti italiana (The fluctuations in Italy’s balance of payments: an empirical analysis of the classical theory)

The present work provides a theoretical framework of reference in order to interpret the fluctuations in Italy’s balance of payments in the post-war period. Such a framework can help to explain the flows of international reserves, even under flexible exchange rates, and may easily be adapted to the analysis of the exchange rate itself. The author first develops a "medium to long term" theoretical model for a "small country", before deriving the equation for the balance of payments to be estimated with annual data. The results of the empirical estimates, which cover the period 1051-1973, are then presented. JEL: E42, F21, F32