Spatially explicit and multiscale ecosystem shift probabilities and risk severity assessments in the greater Mekong subregion over three decades

Abstract Ecosystem functioning and related risks could become compromised by climate change and severely affect livestock in different ways. Based on four climate indices (i.e., SPI, SPEI, PDSI and SEDI), livestock determinants and biogeochemical proxies, we analysed the temporal and geographical extent of terrestrial ecosystem shift probabilities and drought-wetness risk severity at multiple scales (i.e., land cover, climate and elevation) in the greater Mekong subregion (GMS) during the period 1981–2020 by using different cartographic techniques. The results indicated that in the GMS area, approximately 3.8% experienced the highest ecosystem shift probability, 4% was exposed to a high risk of drought and wetness, and only approximately 55% experienced a low risk of drought and/or wetness stress. Cambodia and Thailand experienced the highest ecosystem shift probability ratio and drought-wetness risk severity compared to other GMS countries. Woody savanna and urban land covers; temperate-fully humid-cold summer and tropical rainfall fully humid climate zones; and elevations −47–200 m and ≥2500 m showed common characteristics leading to a very high ecosystem shift probability and experienced high drought-wetness risk severity. This study provides useful information that may exert to a strong control and improved future terrestrial in the context of changes in climate and biogeophysical aspects at the regional and country scales.