Examining the past and current distribution of Pallas’s cat in Southern Mongolia

Mongolia is considered the stronghold of the Pallas’s cat (Otocolobus manul Pallas, 1776) populations. The species is thought to be widely distributed across Mongolia’s mountain steppes. However, the ecology and regional distribution of this species remain poorly known. In June 2018, we carried out an interview-based survey to estimate the current distribution of the Pallas’s cat in Gobi Gurvansaikhan National Park, Southern Mongolia, and assessed how the distribution is predicted to have changed over the last 30 years. We used a multi-season site-occupancy framework to evaluate factors affecting the probability of use by the Pallas’s cat while addressing for imperfect detection. Our study showed that the distribution of the Pallas’s cat was positively correlated with ruggedness while detection probability was negatively correlated with the number of years lived in the area and positively correlated with areas visited by the herders. Our results confirm the presence of the Pallas’s cat in an area that was not part of the known distribution as recently as 2016. They also suggest that the distribution of the Pallas’s cat in the Gobi Gurvansaikhan National Park has shrunk by 15% over the last 30 years. These results highlight the importance of monitoring this elusive species to inform conservation and management efforts in Mongolia.