An Assessment of Beaked Redfish (S. mentella and S. fasciatus) in NAFO Division 3M (With a Revised Approach to Quantify the Increase on Redfish Natural Mortality Determined by the Increase on Cod Predation Observed Over Recent Years, 2006-2012)

The 3M redfish assessment is focused on the beaked redfish, regarded as a management unit composed of two populations from two very similar species: the Flemish Cap S. mentella and S. fasciatus. The reason for this approach is the historical dominance of this group in the 3M redfish commercial catch until 2005. However a new golden redfish fishery (S. marinus) started on September 2005 on shallower depths of the Flemish Cap bank above 300m, and the Flemish Cap cod fishery reopened in 2010. These new realities implied a revision of catch estimates, in order to split recent redfish commercial catch and by-catch from the major fleets on Div. 3M into golden (S. marinus) and beaked (S. mentella and S. fasciatus) redfish catches. An Extended Survivor Analysis (Shepherd, 1999) was used with the same framework of previous assessments and with the tuning of the 1989-2012 EU survey. Survey results suggest that the beaked redfish stock has not been able to hold its growth and sustain an above average level, suffering instead a severe decline on the second half of the 2000’s. The most likely hypothesis to justify this unexpected downward trend on stock size is an increase in natural mortality by cod predation. From the sensitive analysis, natural mortality at 0.4 was applied on ages 4-6 through 2006-2010, and extended to ages 7 plus on 2009 and 2010. It has been kept constant through all ages on 2011 and 2012, but with an overall decline to 0.125.This is the highest possible level of natural mortality giving assessment results in line with the recent survey trends and at the same time with key diagnostics very close to the best ones, obtained with the return on 2011-2012 to the “standard” redfish natural mortality of 0.1. A 2013-2009 retrospective XSA was also carried out, being this assessment very much in line with their immediate predecessors (2012-2011). Above average year classes coupled with low fishing mortalities allowed a rapid growth of biomass and abundance since 2003 that pushed the stock to a 2008-2009 high. Between 2009 and 2011 biomass and abundance of exploitable and 7 plus female stock went down for causes other than fishing. These declines were halted at well above average levels on the terminal year and, at least for biomass, there was some improvement on 2012. The recruitment at age 4 increased from 2002 till 2006 and was kept at a high level until 2009, with 2005 year class as the most abundant year class of the assessment interval. Recruitment to exploitable stock declined since then and is approaching the level of the weak year classes from the 1990’s. Short and medium term stochastic projections were obtained for female spawning stock biomass (SSB) under Fstatusquo , together with SSB and yield medium term probability profiles. As it was documented on the 2011 assessment F0.1 is an unacceptable management option at the current beaked redfish stock status. Keeping on 2014 and 2015 fishing mortality at its present low level will sustain on the short term a high level of female spawning biomass. But on the long term it will be natural mortality to determine the future of beaked redfish as a fishery resource.