Toward a Quantitative Model for Simulation and Forecast of Solar Energetic Particle Production during Gradual Events. I. Magnetohydrodynamic Background Coupled to the SEP Model

Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) are an important aspect of space weather. SEP events posses a high destructive potential, since they may cause disruptions of communication systems on Earth and be fatal to crew members onboard spacecrafts and, in extreme cases, harmful to people onboard high altitude flights. However, currently the research community lacks efficient tools to predict such hazardous threat and its potential impacts. Such a tool is a first step for mankind to improve its preparedness for SEP events and ultimately to be able to mitigate their effects. The main goal of the presented research effort is to develop a computational tool that will have the forecasting capability and can be serve in operational system that will provide live information on the current potential threats posed by SEP based on the observations of the Sun. In the present paper the fundamentals of magneto-hydrodynamical (MHD) simulations are discussed to be employed as a critical part of the desired forecasting system.