What drives the carbon emission in the Chinese cities?—A case of pilot low carbon city of Beijing

Abstract With China's rapid urbanization and industrialization, carbon emission in Chinese cities deserve special attention, and promoting low-carbon city (LCC) is considered essential for China. However, different cities present different development stages and carbon emission scenarios. This study presents the factors affecting carbon emission by introducing a city development-stage framework. The method of logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) is adopted to decompose emission factors into energy structure, energy intensity, industrial structure, economic output and population scale. Beijing is chosen as the case city in this study, and four development stages for the city are identified by using the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory, namely, S 1 (−1991), S 2 (1991–2004), S 3 (2004–2022) and S 4 (2022-). As the data collected for analysis are only available for the period of 1995–2014, this study focuses on the factor analysis for the stage S 2 and S 3 . The results show that the main driving factor for carbon emission increase in the stage S 2 is economic output, followed by population scale, while the main factor contributes to carbon emission reduction in this stage is the industrial structure. In the stage S 3 , the economic output is the top contributor to increase carbon emission, followed by population scale and energy structure, whereas energy intensity is the main influencing factor in curbing the carbon emission. Although the paper refers to the specific case of Beijing, the understanding on the driving emission factors in different development stages not only provides policy-makers and practitioners with valuable references for adopting effective measures to reduce carbon emission, but also provides other cities internationally with important lessons for accelerating the development of LCC. The innovative economic development stage framework incorporates carbon emission characteristics provides a new approach for understanding driving emission factors at city or national level.