Total factor productivity of cultivated land use in China under environmental constraints: temporal and spatial variations and their influencing factors.

The continuous decline in the resource and environment-carrying capacity of cultivated land resources has seriously threatened the sustainable supply of cultivated land resources in China. Using the Hicks-Moorsteen total factor productivity index method, we examine the total factor productivity of cultivated land use (CL-TFP) in China from 2003 to 2017 under environmental constraints. We further use a panel Tobit model to estimate the effect of its influencing factors. The results show that the CL-TFP presents a fluctuating upward trend and reaches data envelopment analysis (DEA) efficiency during the sample period. The regional results reveal a significant spatial difference, especially in the mid-west region, which fails to reach DEA efficiency. China’s main cultivated land did not realize economies of scale. The phenomenon of spatial polarization in what we refer to as very low-value areas and very high-value areas is clear, and the changes are gradual. Regarding the determinative influencing factors, results from the panel Tobit model show that cultivated land usage tax and environmental pollution control investment have no significant effect on CL-TFP, while income level and agricultural intermediate consumption do have a positive effect on CL-TFP. The empirical evidence can help policymakers craft and frame effective policies that improve the utilization efficiency of China’s cultivated land resources.