Climatologia da Chuva em Maceió: Aspectos Climáticos e Ambientais

O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar os aspectos climaticos e ambientais da chuva em Maceio. Dados de 1979 a 2013 do produto de precipitacao CHELSA (Climatologies at High Resolution for the Earth's Land Surface Areas) foram validados pelos dados pluviometricos oriundos da Agencia Nacional de Aguas (ANA) no periodo de 1960 a 2016. Os indicadores estatisticos mostraram elevada correlacao entre dados CHELSA e observado (R 2 = 0,80; r = 0,89) e os menores erros (EPE = 6,58 mm e RMSE = 18,76 mm), portanto o dado do CHELSA pode ser aplicado na regiao. A serie temporal apresentou um periodo 1 (P1) - (1960 a 1989) com chuvas superiores a media historica e um periodo 2 (P2) – (1990 a 2016) com reducao significativa da chuva. Dados observados versus as normais climatologicas mostrou uma diminuicao significativa na normal 1 (1961-1990) na estacao chuvosa, enquanto em relacao a normal 2 (1981-2010) houve aumento nos meses de fevereiro, marco e abril (entre 10 a 20%) e outubro e dezembro (entre 5 a 15%). A distribuicao espacial da chuva mensal via produto CHELSA mostrou a formacao de um gradiente pluviometrico entre a costa e parte alta de Maceio. A topografia influencia o regime de chuva nos bairros pertencentes as regioes administrativas - RA (R4, R5 e R6) com maiores registros de chuva. As fases do ENOS sao responsaveis diretos na variabilidade da chuva interanual, enquanto a variabilidade decadal correspondeu a mudanca de fase da ODP e as alteracoes no uso e ocupacao da terra em Maceio. Climatology of Rainfall in Maceio: Climatic and Environmental Aspects ABSTRACT : The objectives of the study are: i) to evaluate the climatology of rain in Maceio based on observed data, with emphasis on climatic and environmental aspects and ii) to validate the precipitation product for the municipality. Data from 1979 to 2013 of the precipitation product CHELSA (Climatologies at High Resolution for the Earth's Land Surface Areas) were validated by rainfall data from the National Water Agency (NWA) from 1960 to 2016. Statistical indicators showed a high coefficient of determination and linear correlation between CHELSA and observed data (R 2 = 0.80; r = 0.89) and the smallest errors (SEE = 6.58 mm and RMSE = 18.76 mm), therefore the CHELSA product can be applied in the region. The time series presented a period 1 (P1) - (1960 to 1989) with rainfall above the historical average and a period 2 (P2) - (1990 to 2016) with a significant reduction in rainfall. Observed data versus climatological normals showed a significant decrease in normal 1 (1961-1990) in the rainy season, while in relation to normal 2 (1981-2010) there was an increase in the months of February, March and April (between 10 to 20%) and October and December (between 5 to 15%). The spatial distribution of monthly rainfall via the CHELSA product showed the formation of a pluviometric gradient between the coast and the upper part of Maceio. The topography influences the rainfall regime in neighborhoods belonging to the administrative regions (AR) - (R4, R5 and R6) with the highest rainfall records. The ENOS phases are directly responsible for the variability of interannual rain, while the decadal variability corresponded to the PDO phase change and changes in land use and occupation in Maceio. Keywords: CHELSA, urban rainfall, urbanization, population density, socio-environmental vulnerability. Climatology of Rainfall in Maceio: Climatic and Environmental Aspects ABSTRACT : The objectives of the study are: i) to evaluate the climatology of rain in Maceio based on observed data, with emphasis on climatic and environmental aspects and ii) to validate the precipitation product for the municipality. Data from 1979 to 2013 of the precipitation product CHELSA (Climatologies at High Resolution for the Earth's Land Surface Areas) were validated by rainfall data from the National Water Agency (NWA) from 1960 to 2016. Statistical indicators showed a high coefficient of determination and linear correlation between CHELSA and observed data (R 2 = 0.80; r = 0.89) and the smallest errors (SEE = 6.58 mm and RMSE = 18.76 mm), therefore the CHELSA product can be applied in the region. The time series presented a period 1 (P1) - (1960 to 1989) with rainfall above the historical average and a period 2 (P2) - (1990 to 2016) with a significant reduction in rainfall. Observed data versus climatological normals showed a significant decrease in normal 1 (1961-1990) in the rainy season, while in relation to normal 2 (1981-2010) there was an increase in the months of February, March and April (between 10 to 20%) and October and December (between 5 to 15%). The spatial distribution of monthly rainfall via the CHELSA product showed the formation of a pluviometric gradient between the coast and the upper part of Maceio. The topography influences the rainfall regime in neighborhoods belonging to the administrative regions (AR) - (R4, R5 and R6) with the highest rainfall records. The ENOS phases are directly responsible for the variability of interannual rain, while the decadal variability corresponded to the PDO phase change and changes in land use and occupation in Maceio. Keywords: CHELSA, urban rainfall, urbanization, population density, socio-environmental vulnerability.