Investigation of techniques for forecasting the market for new-to-the-world high technology equipment for the mining industry

RESEARCH SUMMARY This report describes a project to investigate techniques for forecasting the market for new-to-the-world high technology equipment in the mining industry within Australia. The investigation is framed around the example of a new technology promising higher performing and more reliable ground penetrating electromagnetic systems. The new technology is currently being developed at the University of Queensland, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering. It was concluded from a literature review that an end-user market survey based on a few more knowledgeable subjects is most appropriate. In particular, the "lead-user" approach proposed by von Hippel (1986) offered the most likelihood of success. An exploratory study was carried out to test the requirements for the introduction of electromagnetic ground penetrating systems to the mining industry and to confirm the effectiveness of the lead-user approach. The results showed a particular demand for medium penetration radar in the iron ore and coal mining industries, a need for a relatively shallow penetration instrument in the bauxite industry and a need for borehole tomography in the diamond mining industry. The lead-user technique was shown to be very effective in providing useful new-to-the-world product market forecasting information very quickly.