Estimating and forecasting COVID-19 attack rates and mortality
2020
{We describe a model for estimating past and current infections
as well as future deaths due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The model does not use confirmed case numbers and is based instead on recorded
numbers of deaths and on the age-specific population distribution.
A regularized deconvolution technique is used to infer past infections from
recorded deaths.
Forecasting is based on a compartmental SIR-type model, combined
with a probability distribution for the time from infection to death.
The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is
modelled empirically, based on recent trends in the death rate. The model can
also be used to study counterfactual scenarios based on hypothetical NPI
policies.
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