The economics of wheat: research challenges from field to fork.

During the two generations leading up to the turn of the century the global population grew by 90% whilst food production expanded by 115%. As with other food crops, wheat productivity rose steadily during the past 40 years through the availability of better varieties, inputs, markets and management. As a result of the growth in supply – wheat is the most widely internally-traded cerealproducer prices have fallen by approximately 40% during the past two generations. Notwithstanding the increase in per capita food production, around 800 million people are hungry and around 1.2 billion people live below the international consumption poverty line of US $ 1 per capita per day. Wheat is grown on a significant scale in 70 countries and for many poor households wheat is a significant production or consumption item. Nevertheless, global food security is quite fragile, particularly when looking towards the middle of the century: because of projected needs for human, animal and industrial uses, global wheat production is expected to increase from nearly 600 million tons to around 760 million tons in 2020, with limited expansion of sown area The estimates of rates of returns on past breeding and agronomic research are very high, partly because of the wide adaptability of many new wheat cultivars. The paper distinguishes returns to productivity and maintenance research, as well as socioeconomic and policy research. In the search for means to accelerate the achievement of the MDGs, the effectiveness of targeting research to marginal areas and marginal farmers becomes an important question Wheat, therefore, is crucial to current and future global food security – the question is: can the achievements of the past be continued in the coming decades? The global demand for wheat is projected to grow modestly at 1.2% p.a. for food and 0.8% p.a. for feed. Greater growth may be experienced in certain end-uses including flour, pasta and bakery products; consequently, quality attributes are assuming greater importance. Many developing countries have implemented trade reforms but annual producer subsidies in OECD countries amount to about $17 billion. There has also been significant tariff The author is responsible for the views expressed in this paper which do not necessarily represent the policies or priorities of CIMMYT.