Eligibility Criteria Affecting Landowner Participation in Greenhouse Gas Programs

Numerous studies have concluded that agriculture and forestry sectors could play an important role in minimizing the costs of achieving greenhouse gas mitigation targets, either through reduced emissions or increased carbon (C) sequestration in soils and forests. Here we assess landowner responsiveness to different carbon payment levels and provide sensitivity analysis over several eligibility criteria. Such criteria are used to limit mitigation efforts to management practices and sectors that are thought to provide GHG benefits that are additional, permanent, verifiable, and measurable. Simulation analysis indicates that facing a modest C payment of $5 per metric ton of GHG mitigation, agriculture and forest landowners could increase their incomes and reduce emissions in the United States on average by more than 100 megatonnes (Mt) per year over the next 40 years. Our analysis suggests that more restrictive mitigation criteria, such as limitation on bioenergy inclusion or land-use change, would lead to fewer emission reductions at any C price, while less restrictive activities, such as an increase in available cropland due to lower CRP enrollment, would lead to greater GHG mitigation.