A Novel Regularizer for Temporally Stable Learning with an Application to Twitter Topic Classification

Abstract Supervised topic classifiers for Twitter and other media sources are important in a variety of long-term topic tracking tasks. Unfortunately, over long periods of time, features that are predictive during the training period may prove ephemeral and fail to generalize to prediction at future times. For example, if we trained a classifier to identify tweets concerning the topic of “Celebrity Death”, individual celebrity names and terms associated with these celebrities such as “Nelson Mandela” or “South Africa” would prove to be temporally unstable since they would not generalize over long periods of time; in contrast, terms like “RIP” (rest in peace) would prove to be temporally stable predictors of this topic over long periods of time. In this paper, we aim to design supervised learning methods for Twitter topic classifiers that are capable of automatically downweighting temporally unstable features to improve future generalization. To do this, we first begin with an oracular approach that chooses temporally stable features based on knowledge of both train and test data labels. We then search for feature metrics evaluated on only the training data that are capable of recovering the temporally stable features identified by our oracular definition. We next embed the top-performing metric as a temporal stability regularizer in logistic regression with the important property that the overall training objective retains convexity, hence enabling a globally optimal solution. Finally, we train our topic classifiers on 6 Twitter topics over roughly one year of data and evaluate on the following year of data, showing that logistic regression with our temporal stability regularizer generally outperforms logistic regression without such regularization across the full precision-recall continuum. Overall, these results establish a novel regularizer for training long-term temporally stable topic classifiers for Twitter and beyond.