The state and future of the cryosphere in Central Asia

Abstract Snow, glaciers and permafrost translate fluctuations of atmospheric conditions and highlight current environmental changes. Monitoring of these changes is one of the major objectives of the international climate observation strategy developed by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). Under ongoing climate change, the implication of altering meltwater released by snow, ice and permafrost will become increasingly relevant for the fragile mountain and lowland environments of Central Asia. These changes will affect the livelihood, particularly for mountain communities but also for the highly populated regions downstream. A degrading cryosphere may cause drastic ecological changes and endanger water, food and health security leading to pronounced political instabilities and changing socio-hydrological interactions. For successful mitigation, the adaptation capacity has to be enforced by first creating basic observational datasets on the state and changes of the cryosphere, and secondly, by providing well-calibrated models in connection with climate scenario output. This information is a pre-condition to reduce on mid- to long-term the vulnerability of the local population. So far, significant data gaps of in situ measurements in Central Asia, mainly from the mid-1990 s to around 2010 impeded sound interpretations of long-term trends in the cryosphere. However, the progress made on glacier observation and capacity building in recent years, promises a future perspective for monitoring including snow and permafrost. This paper summarizes the current knowledge on the state of three essential climate variables (ECV) of the Central Asian cryosphere: snow, glaciers and permafrost in a context of future water security. It highlights the challenges for cryosphere assessments in the region and discusses ongoing monitoring efforts, future directions and emerging approaches, which might address current shortcomings of today’s monitoring network.