High-resolution vehicle emission inventory and emission control policy scenario analysis, a case in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China

Abstract Urban air pollution has become a major concern in China. In the heavily populated and developed Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, vehicle emissions are major pollution contributors. This paper aims to establish 2014 vehicle emission inventories for five major air pollutants in the BTH region: CO, HC, NO x , PM 10 and PM 2.5 and carry out an emission control policy scenario analysis based on the newly developed inventories. Results showed that total emissions of CO, HC, NO x , PM 10 and PM 2.5 from vehicles in the BTH region were 1622.4 kt, 187.5 kt, 544.7 kt, 23.5 kt, and 26.1 kt, respectively. Based on the emission inventory, high-resolution emission distribution maps of the study area were created at a scale of 1 km × 1 km by incorporating local traffic flow data. The CO, HC and NO x emission levels were higher in the southeast, while the PM 10 and PM 2.5 levels were relatively evenly distributed throughout the BTH region. Based on the emission inventories, four policy scenarios were set to simulate the emission changes, and results showed that eliminating old vehicles and upgrading oil quality could reduce emission efficiently. A policy of eliminating old vehicles was selected to calculate the economic cost. Results showed that the emission reduction efficiencies of unit cost decreased from Hebei, Tianjin to Beijing. The results of this study could help policy makers identify pollution sources and design appropriate control measures.