Population and Distribution of Swainson’s Hawks (Buteo swainsoni) in California’s Great Valley: A Framework for Long-Term Monitoring

The California Fish and Game Commission listed the Swainson's Hawk (Buteo swainsoni) as a state threatened species in 1983 in response to population reductions and habitat loss across the state. Human population increases, urbanization, and shifts in agricultural land use have the potential to affect California's Swainson's Hawk population. In 2005 and 2006, we conducted surveys to estimate the abundance and density of Swainson's Hawk breeding pairs in California's Great (Central) Valley, using a random sampling design stratified across dense, medium, and sparse nesting density strata. The sampling units comprised 2.59-km2 (1-mile2) US Public Land Survey System Sections, and the 2-yr survey covered an aggregate total of 682 sampling units (268 in 2005, 414 in 2006). Separate surveyors conducted independent surveys of 29 sampling units in 2006; based on these data, the estimated probability of detecting a single pair (if present) following the multiple-visits protocol was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.58–0.93). After applying this detection-probability correction and using generalized linear modeling of habitat associations to extrapolate density estimates throughout the study area, we estimated that the Great Valley supported 3218 (95% CI: 2271–4165) breeding pairs of Swainson's Hawks in 2005–2006. Our modeling of habitat associations showed crop diversity, alfalfa, and native vegetation as positively associated with the density of Swainson's Hawk breeding pairs, and orchards/vineyards negatively associated. Counts of breeding pairs were also highest in the middle latitudes of the Great Valley, which spans approximately 660 km from north to south. The predictive density model results had some areas of disagreement with the density strata used as basis for the stratified sampling design. To monitor the population status of this species throughout California, we recommend that our 2-yr sampling approach be expanded throughout the state and repeated every 5–10 yr. We also suggest this approach be used to monitor other special status raptor species to track population trend and distributional changes over time.